Weather Forecasting - Science or Guesswork?

Neil ofthe nene

Doing things differently.
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Yesterday morning we were forecast to have thunderstorms all day and for today rain from early morning until mid afternoon. Yesterday we actually had virtually clear blue skies all day and today a shower at 06:30 then no more rain so far.

I have held off watering the garden due to the forecast. With freshly sown grass seed that needs moisture I should have ignored the forecast and watered anyway. I wouldn't mind but all the forecasters sound so sure of themselves with never a hint of doubt.

And it does not seem to make any difference where I look for a forecast, they are all as equally and regularly wrong. But it seems to me that since the BBC went with the lowest bidder to supply forecasts they have been predictably inaccurate.
 

Wise Owl

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Weather Forcasters would make good Politicians, aint got a clue Really even with all the tech sh,t.
Years ago there was a Bloke called Bill Foggitt he predicted the weather more precise than the ones Now.
 

lp1886

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I agree Neil, and I’ve been saying for a long time they should scrap the weather reporting on the news. My local forecast for yesterday was rain all day with a break in showers from 11-12...it was glorious sunshine all day and I ended up putting the BBQ on at 4pm. With all of the technology they have available, they constantly get it wrong.
 

sly

bit better gear,still no idea
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On my fone, forecast yesterday, thunderstorm from 4 pm started 3.45 ish ended 5.30 ish,so fairly accurate
 

62tucker

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Thursday night we had 8 hrs of thunder and Lightening forecast for Friday
Friday morning it had gone to 6 hrs.
Friday 11am it had gone to 3 hrs
And guess what we had none at all.
was even a weather warning for all day.
And today has changed from yesterday 4 hrs of thunderstorms from 3. And I hopefully fishing till 8
 

squimp

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Whether you like it or not, weather forecasting is a science.

it is also complicated and doubly so as the U.K. has a maritime climate.

when I have my fishing ‘head’ on, my life revolves around the weather forecast. Being self employed and nearly retired I can pick my times - so fishing in the right conditions is paramount to me.

FWIW I tend to click on ‘metcheck’ when I want a forecast. I think it is more reliable than the BBC one.
 

muskrat

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A work colleague once suggested that the forecasters have two hats; each filled with slips of paper.
In one hat all the papers have different severities of weather. In the other; different types.

So they pick two slips and decide:

Gale Force ........... Fog

Yeah, that'll do! :ROFLMAO:
 
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