North South Divide & Covid

spanky

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I'm not trying to start a North-South argument here, but thought this might be interesting to share. The chart below shows the weekly level of new infections of Covid 19 for England. The height of the bar shows the number of new cases on a per 100,000 of the population basis, the colour coding the data in bands.

As you can see rates of new infections are generally lower in the South and South East, with much higher levels as you go north of the midlands.

Can anyone provide a reasonable explanation for this - it's easy to fall back on stereotypes at a time like this, but is there a reason why the virus seems more prevalent in the north?

1605017588209.png

Also... I have a more complex analysis where I've taken the data above and also looked at growth rate to see if there are any hot spots where there are high rates of infection and high growth. There are several clusters of these hotspots around West Yorkshire, Manchester, East Midlands and the Black Country. The area of biggest concern though, is around Hull where cases are high and increasing rapidly. Hopefully these areas are the ones that should benefit most from lockdown 2 and see a reduction in new cases in the coming weeks.

Interestingly, Nottingham and Liverpool (which were more restricted a few weeks ago) are already showing signs of a decline in new cases.
 

John Step

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I heard on our local radio that the cases in then Humber region could be down to there being a lot of food processing plants here. It seems for some reason to spread quicker in them. Car sharing? Close working conditions? I dont know but there seems to be a large incidence in them. Nottinghanmshire (Newark) also was in the news re the cases in a meat processing plant.
 

nejohn

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One thing that can explain some of the divide is there is a lot more heavy industry in the north as opposed to much more office based work in the south. So working from home is much easier in the south as more people are in occupations that allow working from home. Much more day to day contact in factories etc so much more chance of coming into contact with someone that has the virus. If you add to that other factors like tightly knit communities and family groups are prevalent in the area's that have high infection rates then I think that will go some way to explaining it
 

G0zzer2

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Could it also be that London was the leader in transmissions earlier, so a lot of those vulnerable to the virus have already had it?
 

Neil ofthe nene

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This type of graph is not new and the North South split has been around since the virus struck. I started a thread in May on the subject.


To me the excuse of tight knit communities and families carries no weight as during Lockdown no one should have been mixing with people outside of their household. Of course if you ignored that advice then that may well explain high rates of infection.
 

nejohn

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This type of graph is not new and the North South split has been around since the virus struck. I started a thread in May on the subject.


To me the excuse of tight knit communities and families carries no weight as during Lockdown no one should have been mixing with people outside of their household. Of course if you ignored that advice then that may well explain high rates of infection.
Neil, that was exactly a point I was inferring but a lot of these tight knit communities for one reason or another can not be criticised if you get my drift
 

Sam Vimes

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There are so many factors that it's barely possible to isolate any particular reason. There were a few scientific voices that suggested that there was a weather/temperature element to the initial spread of the virus. I suspect that the way that more northerly areas have been more problematical post-summer may actually support that hypothesis. However, as we've gone into national lockdown we may not see a similar rise in cases further south. I guess we'll find out in a month or so.
 

jpwebster

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Lots of Factories in and around Hull aswell as lots of people living 10-20 to a 2/3 bed house...plus a large student population and plenty of close knit council estates.
Wonder if we had a delay in getting the virus in the first place being 'end of the line' and we're now seeing a delayed spike as in the beginning we certainly lagged behind other cities nearby.
 

Maesknoll

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I can tell you what the yellow spike on Bristol is, the two university halls of residence, they have totally skewed the central Bristol figures, thankfully I’m not in that area.
 

fishcatcher4

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Our local hospital has 30/40 more cases in hospital (about 126 ) than at the first peak with 27 deaths last week.
 

alsur

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On one of earlier briefing they said infections never got as low in parts of North than they did in the South so when infections started to increase it was from a higher base. Over the last couple of weeks cases have be increasing in South at a faster rate than Notth.
 

davylad

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When the virus was rife in such places as Leeds, The North West, Nottingham etc, it was very low in the Hull area. Then all of a sudden it's one of the highest, I understand the geographical position might have something to do with it, but not sure. One of my granddaughters has tested positive, she works in one of the theatres at HRI. I know another bloke who's got it, and I've been told he's not expected to survive it. Let's hope this vaccine gets passed and underway sooner rather than later.
 

Blanks

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No covid down here in Wessex except in the only large town that has a big community of asians.
 
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