Covid-19 tracking

Trogg

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I've been checking this a lot over the past week or so, if you scroll all the way out it gives the global total, when you scroll in the dots become more spaced out and if you click on one then it gives you a bit more detailed information.


At the moment it is showing

Globally, 720,117 confirmed, 149,082 recoveries, 33,925 deaths

Mainland UK, 19,522 confimed, 135 recoveries, 1,228 deaths

The Isle of Man, 42 confirmed, 0 recoveries, 0 deaths

The Channels Islands, 108 confirmed, 0 recoveries, 2 deaths.

Oh and even though you are probably aware @Godber Malta is 151 confirmed, 2 recoveries, 0 deaths.

The "good news" if there is any to be had is that the UK should reach it's peak within the next couple of weeks, which will be just inside the 3 week lockdown, that is of course if the idiots who think it doesn't include them actually start following the rules!

I've seen the news this morning about 6 months blah blah BUT that is only if the infamous "curve" doesn't start dropping after the next 3 or 4 weeks have passed.
At the moment we are still on par with Italy for the time scale (thankfully without the same numbers) so fingers crossed within a month we could all be back to doing what we love most...lazing around in bed and watching TV ;)

Of course we can also look forward to the fishing trips i suppose, after all...there won't be much left on the wives "honey do" lists by the time this is over :)
 

Neil ofthe nene

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The 6 month estimation was stated as a worst case scenario and it was quickly explained that it was not expected to become reality - if we do as we are asked. But the Press as usual have to sensationalise and paint the blackest picture to provide copy selling headlines.
 

Barbelcatcher

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Well, I hope people do as asked. Both our next door neigbours who only went out twice, to chemist and local shop, caught it, hospitalised, (tested positive) - she is back home. Unfortunately he is now a statistic, passing away yesterday. Another lady nearby taken very ill with it. All had other illnesses/infections.

Keep safe, keep isolated, help others if possible.
 

Barbelcatcher

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I find this site very helpful as regards the figures and ability to check all countries and graphics etc.

 

Markywhizz

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I’ve been using that site as well @Barbelcatcher . It’s definitely the best I’ve found. There is such a massive amount of information on it. (y)
 

62tucker

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The 6 month estimation was stated as a worst case scenario and it was quickly explained that it was not expected to become reality - if we do as we are asked. But the Press as usual have to sensationalise and paint the blackest picture to provide copy selling headlines.
The press and tv are rubbish. I heard on Friday that if Boris couldn’t do meetings that Dominic Raab would be in charge etc. Yesterday “ Beth rigby sky news “ asked Gove who was in charge of the country if Boris was to Ill He said Boris has done all the meetings since he’s been in isolation. Again she asked “ who be in charge if he cannot do the meeting” he said again he is well enough to do the meeting but Dominic Raab The Secretary of State for foreign affairs will be in charge if anything changes. They were just trying to undermine gove in my opinion And served no purpose at all.
 

Godber

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Cheers Trogg, the Maltese authorities have been on the ball. Temperature checks on arrival at the port and airport. 14 days quarantine with random checks carried out at your hotel or address with €1000 fines every time you get caught breaking the quarantine. Bars pubs and clubs, shops etc closed.
Mum and Dad have locked themselves away in there house, no visitors at all. It's a worry though.
 

chris1967

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I have a question please feel free to inform me ,Its quoted that we should reach the peak in 3 weeks ,which i assume that the working on figures of people infected now ,but surely that cant be a true representation what happens when we allowed back out
Now call me thick or ban me lol , but we can only reach the peak when the overall majority of the population have been infected and recovered .but the figures out at the moment are only a tiny amount of general population
And before you all jump on me as a none caring individual my dad has prostate and is bricking it,im just sceptical of the information i read from the goverment
 

spanky

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I find this site very helpful as regards the figures and ability to check all countries and graphics etc.


I've been using this site also for my raw data - I don't like the graphics but at least the numbers are consistent and sourced.

Latest trends suggest:

UK - some suggestions of a slight slowdown in the growth rate of new cases. But too early to tell - we had a flattening of new cases about a week ago before new cases increased steadily for a few days. Next few days will be critical to tell if the curve has changed shape. Fatalities have increased rapidly in the last three published days (much faster than expected) suggesting that the NHS is being overwhelmed at some locations (press coverage says the same in some places). Current loading on the system suggests 350 deaths/day likely soon and 2000 deaths total by end of the week.

Italy - Level of new daily cases has flattened off somewhat at 5-6K per day, hopefully will see a decreasing trend going forward - however it's difficult to tell since weekend figures can be a little low anyway. Owing to the large number of cases (86K so far) and the high daily case rate expect 750-900 fatalities per day for most of this week, 15K total fatalities by the end of the week.

Spain - appears to have turned the corner and daily cases are starting to decline (would like to see a few more days of this though). Expect fatality levels to peak this week (one week after the peak number of new cases). This could top 1000 fatalities a day this week, with over 10K deaths.

France - daily new cases are still increasing (hopefully this will slow this week). Current trends suggest 500 deaths per day by the end of the week, 5K total. Latest new case data for 29/3/20 are much lower than expected, but could be the weekend effect.

USA - there was a distinct increase in new cases reported in the USA from 17/3/20 onwards, believed to be caused by changing in testing. These new cases (which I would expected to include more mild infections) do not appear to have caused a corresponding increase in the rate of fatalities. It is too early to tell for sure. The large pool of new cases (just under 20K per day for the last 4 days) could easily drive 1000 deaths a day by the end of the week, but hopefully the inclusion of many milder cases will mean we see a much lower number in the coming days. (It's really difficult to establish a statistical relationship when the environment is changing so fast).

Germany - is using a non-standard method for both testing and reporting of deaths. So I am not watching this so closely at the moment as it is very difficult to create informed opinion.
 

PAB

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How many have to die before we close our boards to all non essential arrivals or at least test them passenger flights and trains are arriving by the hour with no checks what so ever what's the point of living on a island we don't take advantage of that fact.
 

spanky

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I have a question please feel free to inform me ,Its quoted that we should reach the peak in 3 weeks ,which i assume that the working on figures of people infected now ,but surely that cant be a true representation what happens when we allowed back out
Now call me thick or ban me lol , but we can only reach the peak when the overall majority of the population have been infected and recovered .but the figures out at the moment are only a tiny amount of general population
And before you all jump on me as a none caring individual my dad has prostate and is bricking it,im just sceptical of the information i read from the goverment
Hi Chris

At all comes down to transmission rates and the number of people around who've already had covid-19.

The current thinking is that unchecked the average person will infect 2 more people who in turn effect two more and so on. However, eventually you run out of people to infect - think about you own social circle, there are limits to how many people you meet, once so many of them have had covid-19 it becomes harder to spread. Plus, bear in mind that many mild cases go undetected.

The current lockdown massively reduces the chance of transmission in two ways - one we reduce the people we meet and two infected people recover and are no longer contagious. Eventually this will reduce both the number of infectious people out there and the number of susceptible people too. In theory we don't need everyone to have had covid-19 for the so called 'herd immunity' to kick in.

What happens over the next few month is key - but it is difficult to speculate on what might happen, but you could see wide-scale testing in a few weeks time and those who are certified to have had recovered allowed back to work (either in their own jobs or other key roles) whilst vulnerable people are kept lockdown for their own protection. Then we might see a relaxation in the rules once the scale and spread of covid-19 is better understood.

Please remember that catching covid-19 is not a death sentence the majority of elderly sufferers (one study says 6 out of seven patients) recover, providing the NHS is not overwhelmed at the time.
 

62tucker

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Yesterday was the 1st drop in dead I think. But they been saying the death rate will double every 2/3 day. ? but can see it being 1000 a day by Easter
 

chris1967

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Both myself and the mrs have both been unwell ,i,ve had chest pains,out of breathe,temp up and down now i feel like ive got a bad cold . The mrs same but had a cough and now my youngest son coughing this morning (he's 18)
i rung the 111 number a week ago and they just as much in the dark to it all as me i'm not remotely worried as im fighting fit
I genuinely more concerned about the weak and elderley
 

Barbelcatcher

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Chris, much like the same symptons as we have had. I also had kidney back pains - mine started on the 18th and has persisted until basically yesterday. We haven't had a temperature increase as such and only a mild cough. In one way I hope that we did catch it off the neighbours, - we did have contact - and we have only a mild case, because (she) next door neighbour has been returned home, so must have been mild for her. Obviously I posted about her husband, he passed away yesterday.

Chris, I feel that the other point is, that their may be more like 10 persons who have it with very mild symptons or none. It is the contact with these people, who think that they are fit, which will fuel up the spike. That is why the information is stop indoors, isolate, sdo not mix.

Yesterday, 2 youths were walking up our street, one each side to be alone. Strange that they both had metal detectors - off to scan a field I presume - don't call that be social responsible or exercise.
 
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chris1967

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Chris, much like the same symptons as we have had. I also had kidney back pains - mine started on the 18th and has persisted until basically yesterday. We haven't had a temperature increase as such and only a mild cough. In one way I hope that we did catch it off the neighbours, - we did have contact - and we have only a mild case, because (she) next door neighbour has been returned home, so must have been mild for her. Obviously I posted about her husband, he passed away yesterday.

Chris, I feel that the other point is, that their may be more like 10 persons who have it with very mild symptons or none. It is the contact with these people, who think that they are fit, which will fuel up the spike. That is why the information is stop indoors, isolate, sdo not mix.

Yesterday, 2 ypuths were walkinh up our street, one each side to be alone. Strange that they both had metal detectors - off to scan a field I presume - don't call that be social responsible or exercise.

i dont know if it is or is not ,staying in all the same ,just so damn bored i've tied about 100 hooklengths up already shame about her husband though mate
 

62tucker

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How is anyone on their phone being tracked ? Like big brother watching you.
I couldn’t give 2 hoots if someone knew my movements as I got nothing to hide.
Just I heard on news the government are busy working on a app that should be ready for hopefully when the lockdown is over. Not sure how it will work?
If you need to go somewhere your shouldn’t be. Just leave phone at home. ?‍♂️
 

Silverfisher

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I had a mild symptoms starting this time last week so shut myself away until today just to play safe but it never really amounted to anything more than an inconvenience so unfortunately I doubt it was it. Was really hoping it would have turned out to have been a mild version of it just to get it out the way as not sure I fancy getting it now the strain is really starting to build on the hospitals.
 

spanky

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How is anyone on their phone being tracked ? Like big brother watching you.
I couldn’t give 2 hoots if someone knew my movements as I got nothing to hide.
Just I heard on news the government are busy working on a app that should be ready for hopefully when the lockdown is over. Not sure how it will work?
If you need to go somewhere your shouldn’t be. Just leave phone at home. ?‍♂️
Most phones have built in location tracking - with android you can switch it off (in theory) with apple it's harder to control. This is high accuracy tracking down to a few yards. At one point my company iphone (long since discarded) worked out where I lived and worked and predicted my daily travel times - all without asking permission to do so!

At the higher levels the telecoms companies can see which mast your phone was connected to over time and get a higher level location from there - it won't give massively high accuracy but it will tell if you're moving from mast to mast and particularly if you're driving or commuting regularly.

At the lower level it is possible to track phones in real time and do all sorts of exciting (and invasive) things. I doubt these apps will be mandatory though and you always have the off button.
 
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spanky

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Yesterday was the 1st drop in dead I think. But they been saying the death rate will double every 2/3 day. ? but can see it being 1000 a day by Easter
The daily death rate goes up and down regularly - we're dealing with real people here so you can have lots of variation in timings for both attending hospital and dying. Decreases were seen on 7th, 10th, 13th, 17th, 20th & 22nd of March. Also on 25th March but that was a change in reporting process, so the 47 quoted did not represent a full 24 hour period.

The new cases rate often declines on a Saturday and Sunday (reported on a Sunday and Monday) it's best not to read too much into one number.

To have 1000 deaths per day by Easter we'd need to be seeing about 7000 new cases a day a week prior to Easter - so watch the new daily case data like a hawk.
 
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